Automatic language translation
Our website uses an automatic service to translate our content into different languages. These translations should be used as a guide only. See our Accessibility page for further information.
Did raising the school leaving age reduce crime? Evidence from NSW
Supporting documents
- Full report (pdf) PDF, 857.2 KB
- Plain language summary PDF, 143.7 KB
Summary
Background
In New South Wales (NSW), between 1943 and 2009, the Minimum School Leaving Age was 15 (i.e., a student could unconditionally leave school after turning 15). In 2010, the NSW Government introduced the Education Amendment Act 2009 (NSW) (the amendment). The amendment changed the conditions under which a student could leave school. Following the introduction of the amendment, in order to leave school, a student must either: complete Grade 10 and be 17 years old; or complete Grade 10 and enter into an approved pathway (e.g., paid employment or a vocational education and training course).
In this study, we set out to determine whether the amendment had a (direct) impact on the probability of a student completing Grades 10 - 12, and an (indirect) impact on the probability of a proven offence by age 25.
To make that determination, we used a linked dataset that contains demographic characteristics, educational attainment records, and a complete history of interactions with the criminal justice system for any individual born in NSW between 1992 and 1996. Using these data, we compare the first cohort of students affected by the amendment with the last cohort of students unaffected by the amendment in a regression discontinuity design.
Key findings
The amendment increased the probability of a boy completing Grades 10 and 11 by 1 – 2 percentage points. The amendment had no impact on the probability of a boy completing Grade 12, and no impact on educational attainment for girls. We also find the amendment had no impact on the probability of an individual committing a violent crime, property crime, drug crime or crime of any type between the ages of 15 and 24.
Figure 1. The probability of at least one proven offence prior to age 25 among people born 90 days before and after the cutoff
Conclusion
The amendment had no discernible impact on crime. This is likely the result of the fact that the vast majority of young people in NSW were already meeting the requirements set out under the amendment prior to its introduction. For that reason, the amendment had limited scope to influence education or criminal justice outcomes.
Last updated: