Review of the evaluation of the Suspect Target Management Plan

The publication An evaluation of the Suspect Target Management Plan was revised on 15 February 2021 with the following changes:

• Further clarification that the estimates from the analysis do not have a causal interpretation; and

• Correction of a data error which led to a suggestion in the original paper that juvenile STMP participation was not related to an increase in custodial sentences.

The overall findings remain unchanged:

1. Both STMP II and DVSTMP have a significant negative association with crime;

2. The the STMP II result is weaker for Aboriginal people than non-Aboriginal people.
   

The changes follow an internal review conducted by BOCSAR after three technical papers raised questions about aspects of the study methodology (see here: Link to Critical Review - Macdonald (PDF, 186.9 KB); Link to Critical Review - Popovic (PDF, 266.9 KB); Link to Critical Review - Watson (PDF, 679.0 KB)).

A detailed response to these concerns is here: Link to our response (PDF, 915.5 KB). 

The original report was published on 13 October 2020. (Link to original report (PDF, 920.5 KB)).