Trends in police legal action rates in New South Wales: 2009 to 2023

Aim

To examine changes in the clear up rate for New South Wales (NSW) crimes by considering offence-specific trends in the NSW Police Force 90-day legal action rate over the 15 years from 2009 to 2023.

Method

Data were extracted from the NSW Police Force’s Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for incidents reported between 2009 and 2023. This includes the total number of incidents reported, the number of persons of interest legally proceeded against, and the percentage of incidents where police commenced legal action against at least one person within 90 days of reporting. Trends were examined separately across 11 major offence categories using the  percentage point change and the total percentage change. The Kendall’s rank order correlation test to determine statistical significance.

Results

Over the 15 years from 2009 to 2023, there were significant increases in the 90-day legal action rate for nine of the 11 offences examined. The largest percentage point changes were observed for robbery (up 19.9 percentage points (p.p.)), malicious damage to property (up 14.2 p.p.), break and enter non-dwelling (up 12.7 p.p.), break and enter dwelling (up 8.5 p.p.), motor vehicle theft (up 7.9 p.p.) and domestic violence (DV) related assault (up 6.5 p.p.).  Smaller, though significant, increases were also found for steal from motor vehicle (up 3.0 p.p.), non-DV related assault (up 2.5 p.p.) and sexual touching, sexual act and other sexual offences (up 2.0 p.p.). By contrast there was a significant decline in the 90-day legal action rate for reported incidents of sexual assault over the 15-year period examined (down -3.4 p.p.). For most property offences, the upward trend in legal action rates has not caused a significant growth in criminal court workload. This is because the fall in crime rates over the last 15 years has been even greater than the rise in legal actions. This is not true for DV assault and sexual touching, sexual acts and other sexual offences. The combination of a rise in incident counts and the improvements in legal action rates has resulted in more people being brought before the criminal courts for these offences. The overall number of sexual assault incidents recorded by police over the 15-year period also increased. This increase offset the decline in the legal action rate in recent years, leading to a higher number of offenders being proceeded against to court for this offence.

Conclusion

Across most offence categories in NSW, there has been a consistent and long-term upward trend in the police legal action rate. While this may have increased public confidence in policing and deterred offenders, this higher rate of police proceedings means that the criminal court caseload has not decreased in line with the large drop in property crime observed over the last two decades. The higher volume of DV assaults and sex offences combined with the rise in legal action rates for these offences has also impacted court caseload.