Petrol theft driven by more than fuel prices new BOCSAR study finds

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Release date: Wednesday, 9 September 2026

New research from the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR) has found that rising petrol prices increase petrol theft, but over time, broader cost-of-living pressures appear to have an even greater influence on petrol theft rates.

The research found that increases in petrol prices cause increases in petrol theft. A 1% increase in petrol prices was estimated to result in around a 3% increase in monthly petrol thefts. However, the study also found that broader economic conditions, particularly rising living costs and changes in wages, are more strongly associated with petrol theft rates over time.

The study set out to explain a puzzling trend. Between 2022 and 2024, petrol thefts rose sharply across NSW, despite petrol prices remaining relatively stable.

BOCSAR Executive Director Jackie Fitzgerald said the findings suggest petrol theft is shaped by household financial pressures, not just the price displayed at the bowser.

"Higher petrol prices do increase petrol theft, but they appear to be only part of the story."

"The research suggests that petrol theft is more closely linked to broader household budget pressures than to fuel prices in isolation."

“Living costs affect a much larger share of household budgets than petrol alone, and our findings suggest these broader financial pressures may be an important factor influencing petrol theft.”

While petrol prices were associated with petrol theft, the strongest relationships were observed for broader economic pressures. Holding other factors constant, over the medium term a 1% higher level of living costs was associated with a 6% higher level of petrol theft, while a 1% higher level of wages was associated with a 16% lower level of petrol theft. By comparison, a 1% higher petrol price was associated with a 1% higher level of petrol theft. These findings suggest that overall household purchasing power may have a stronger relationship with petrol theft than fuel prices alone.

Importantly, the study found no evidence that motorists immediately respond to daily fluctuations in petrol prices. Day-to-day differences in fuel prices across locations did not affect petrol theft rates. Instead, thefts appeared to respond to price changes over longer timeframes.

Jackie said that these results together suggest sustained financial pressure may be a more important driver of offending than short-term price movements.

"The absence of an immediate response to daily price fluctuations suggests that people are not making spur-of-the-moment decisions to steal petrol simply because prices are higher that day."

"Rather, rising fuel costs may contribute to financial strain over time, with petrol theft becoming more likely when households face sustained pressure on their budgets."

"This may help explain why petrol thefts rose strongly during a period when petrol prices were relatively stable but broader cost-of-living pressures were increasing."


For comment please contact:

Jackie Fitzgerald, Executive Director, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics & Research.

Phone: +61 423 139 687
Email: jackie.fitzgerald@dcj.nsw.gov.au
Copies of the report: www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au 

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