​Update to the report on the effect of liquor licence concentrations in local areas on rates of assault in NSW

The 2014 report The effect of liquor licence concentrations in local areas on rates of assault in NSW was revised in April 2023 with the following changes:

• All figures and results for the analysis of DV rates based on the (incorrectly) weighted SAR model were replaced with analogous figures and results based on the unweighted model; and
• Results from a number of suggested alternate models are included in the appendices, including the correctly weighted SAR models and models estimated using all NSW LGAs (except Conargo LGA).

The overall conclusions in the original report remain unchanged:

1. The concentration of hotel licences in an LGA, particularly at higher density levels, was strongly predictive of both DV and non-DV assault rates.
2. A similar, but slightly weaker, association was found for the concentration of packaged licences and DV and non-DV assault rates. 
3. On-premises concentrations also predicted DV and non-DV assault rates at the LGA level but, unlike hotel concentration effects, in this case there was no evidence of stronger effects at higher density levels.

The changes follow an independent review, commissioned by BOCSAR, after concerns were raised about the modelling approach used in the study.

The original report was published in December 2014. (Link to original report (PDF, 1.4 MB)).